Mexico achieves record trade surplus with the US
Mexico is on track to surpass China this year as the country with the largest positive trade balance with its North American partner.
Mexico achieved a record trade surplus with the United States in 2025 and is poised to overtake China in the overall trade surplus between the two countries, considering the results and trends for 2025.
On the one hand, China’s trade surplus fell 31.6% compared to 2024, to $202.071 billion, although it remains the largest among all of the United States’ trading partners.
On the other hand, Mexico’s trade surplus reached $196.913 billion, representing a 14.8% year-over-year increase, according to Census Bureau data.
Mexico remained the top trading partner for U.S. goods in 2025, surpassing Canada as the leading destination for U.S. exports and maintaining its position as the top external supplier for the third consecutive year.
In 2025, the difference between China’s and Mexico’s trade surpluses was just $5.158 billion, a marginal figure compared to the largest difference ever reported for this indicator, which was $337.645 billion in 2018, when China recorded a surplus of $419.162 billion and Mexico $81.517 billion.
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The United States has experienced annual trade deficits for most of the post-World War II period.
For the rest of the world, the U.S. trade deficit in goods was $1.23 trillion in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.4%.
According to an analysis by the U.S. Congress, some observers argue that the trade deficit costs American jobs, is unsustainable, or reflects unfair trade practices by foreign competitors.
But the same analysis adds that most economists argue this distorts the nature of the trade deficit and the role of trade in the economy.
In general, most economists conclude that the trade deficit is largely due to US macroeconomic policies and an imbalance between saving and investment.
Under this logic, reducing the deficit requires increasing net domestic saving, which is possible by reducing private consumption or the fiscal deficit.
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Economists also conclude that trade generates both benefits and costs, but that the net long-term effect on the economy as a whole is positive. At the same time, some workers and firms may bear a disproportionate share of the short-term adjustment costs.
Mexico, The Winner
Last December, in meetings with the House Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee, White House Trade Representative Jamieson Greer highlighted that Mexico has contributed 25% to the reduction of the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China, demonstrating the important role Mexico plays in U.S. supply chain resilience efforts.
In U.S. imports, the average manufactured product from Mexico contains 40% U.S. content, and the average manufactured product from Canada contains 25% U.S. content.
In its 2025 National Security Strategy, the White House states that the United States will prioritize rebalancing its trade relationships, reducing trade deficits, opposing barriers to its exports, and eradicating dumping and other anticompetitive practices that harm American industries and workers.
“We seek fair and reciprocal trade agreements with nations that wish to trade with us on the basis of mutual benefit and respect. But our priorities must be, and will be, our own workers, our own industries, and our own national security,” the document states.
The next three largest U.S. goods trade deficits in 2025 saw year-over-year increases: Vietnam ($178.183 billion, +44.3%), Taiwan ($146.757 billion, +99.1%) and Ireland ($114.201 billion, +32%).
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